Separately from the score, every launch is followed after it opens and given one outcome by fixed rules. The cases below are read live from that record.Chapter 8 of 9 · edition 1
Separately from the score, every launch is followed after it opens and given one outcome by fixed rules. The cases below are read live from that record.Chapter 8 of 9 · edition 1
X-RAY
08
OUTCOMES
Chapter 8.
Separately from the score, every launch is followed after it opens and given one outcome by fixed rules. The cases below are read live from that record.
Four outcomes, fixed rules
Creator sold out: the price fell 80% or more from its peak while the creator wallet sold. Collapsed: the price fell 90% or more from its peak. Went quiet: no trades for three days. Still trading: none of the above.
The rules use the pool’s price and the creator wallet’s balance, nothing else. An outcome describes what happened on-chain; it is not a finding of intent or wrongdoing.
Why outcomes matter to the score
Outcomes are how the method is held to account. Calibration measures how often launches in each band went on to collapse or sell out; the flag record measures how often each flag preceded one. Both are published and both move as the record grows.
TERMS IN THIS CHAPTEROutcome. What happened to a launch by fixed rules on its price and the creator wallet’s balance. Not a finding of intent. · Creator sold out. The price fell 80% or more from its peak while the creator wallet sold. · Collapsed. The price fell 90% or more from its peak. · Went quiet. No trades for three days. · Still trading. None of the other outcomes applies; trading continues.